Environmental Migration Under Sea-Level Rise: Exposure, Displacement, and Policy Choices
Context—Sea-level rise is transforming environmental migration from an episodic disaster issue into a long-term planning problem for coastal societies. Findings—Evidence indicates that exposure is highly scenario-dependent: global mean sea level will continue rising through this century, while improved elevation models suggest hundreds of millions of people occupy land vulnerable to annual coastal flooding by 2100 without adaptation [1], [3]. Yet exposure does not translate mechanically into displacement. Outcomes depend on coastal protection, land-use rules, housing markets, livelihoods, legal status, social networks, and the resources households have to move safely or remain in place. Implications—Risk is concentrated in low-lying deltas, small islands, informal settlements, and rapidly urbanising coasts, where those least responsible for climate change often face the highest relocation burden. Robust policy should pair emissions reductions and coastal adaptation with rights-based planned relocation, portable services, and migration pathways that preserve dignity and choice.
Introduction
Sea-level rise is one of the clearest long-term signals of climate change, and it is increasingly central to debates about environmental migration. Unlike sudden hazards, rising seas alter the viability of places gradually, through more frequent tidal flooding, salinisation, erosion, storm-surge amplification, and the eventual loss of land or infrastructure [1], [2]. These processes do not simply push people away in a uniform way. They interact with housing tenure, livelihoods, public investment, insurance markets, cultural attachment, and the ability of households to finance either protection or movement [8], [9].
The policy challenge is therefore not to predict a single…
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